Art of the Plea Deal
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Audio Recording by George Hahn
After reading this, many readers will accuse me of Trump Derangement Syndrome (TDS). I believe I suffer from a different ailment, DAS: Democracy Addiction Syndrome. And Daddy needs his fix.
Today’s post is an updated version of one I wrote a year ago. While things have changed — a lot — since last August, my argument not only holds up, it’s gotten stronger.
Trump & Math
It’s increasingly likely Trump will exit the presidential race in exchange for an omnibus deal, across jurisdictions, that keeps him out of jail. The rise of Kamala Harris and the growing probability that the former president will lose in November make the logic colder and more compelling. Opinion polls show Harris ahead of or tied with Trump in six of the seven critical swing states. She’s beating him, for instance, in North Carolina, which he just barely won in 2020, and where Biden had been struggling even before the debate disaster.
It’s not the poll numbers themselves, which are all within the margin of error, but the Harris/Walz ticket’s momentum going into the DNC, which historically provides a 4- to 6-point polling bump. By the end of month, Harris could have a high-single-digit edge with nine weeks until election day. This is similar to the margin that compelled Nancy Pelosi to march up to the West Wing and tell President Biden to sign his resignation … with his pen or his blood.
Felon
This May, Trump was convicted of 34 counts of fraud by a New York jury in the Stormy Daniels case, the weakest case against him. Sentencing has been held up while he appeals, and it’s unlikely he’ll see any jail time, as a first-time, nonviolent offender. The other cases — federal trials involving January 6 and the allegedly illegal possession of classified documents, and the Georgia case about trying to overturn the 2020 results there — are different stories. They’re much stronger, but have been delayed by Trump’s appeals and moves to get judges and prosecutors replaced. None of them will come to trial before the election, and if he wins they probably never will. If he loses, though, he will face trial and the real possibility of conviction and incarceration; it’ll take time, but the gears of accountability and justice grind forward.
Harris has revitalized her party with a campaign that emphasizes youth, optimism, and hope for the future. She’s done this by saying (wait for it) nothing. Trump has done her job for her as he continues his grievance/rage tour. The age issue has turned from a bug into a feature for the Democrats. The Earth has shifted under Trump, and he’s stumbling. Recent better inflation numbers and the likelihood of a Fed rate cut soon will help Harris, too.
Also, somebody forgot to tell Trump he’s no longer running against Biden; he’s ranting that the guy who dropped out weeks ago is “close to vegetable state” and hallucinating scenarios in which Biden still gets the Democratic nomination. If “Get off my lawn” were an LLM, it would be the Trump campaign.
Crime and Punishment
President Trump is an obese 78-year-old male. The average 80-year-old has a life expectancy of (another) 8 years. Trump’s obesity and prison would probably cut that in half, meaning any sentence greater than 48 months is a life sentence. Incarceration, balanced against a life (post-deal) of golf clubs, sycophants, and porn stars, should weigh heavily on even the most delusional psyche.
How serious is the threat of prison? Federal prosecutors rarely lose: In 2021, 94% of defendants charged with a federal felony were convicted. State and local prosecutors convict at high rates as well — the Atlanta office which indicted Trump boasts a 90% conviction rate. Of those convicted by the feds, 74% received prison time. In cases for mishandling national security documents specifically, the DOJ regularly obtains multiyear sentences. And the documents case against the former president is notable for the weight of the evidence, including audio of him sharing military secrets he admits weren’t declassified, the sensitivity of the papers, and his blatant obstruction — offenses the DOJ and courts take very seriously.
It’s not any one case that cements Trump’s fate, but the compounding risk of his several indictments. Generally, defendants have a 3 in 10 chance of escaping an indictment without prison. A 30% chance of prevailing, four times in a row, is just under 1%. That’s a 1% chance of not going to prison.
This Is Different
OK, but Trump is not a typical defendant, and no case against him will be straightforward. He has unlimited resources and can deploy the full apparatus of a billionaire’s legal defense. In addition, there is a non-zero probability any jury will have a Trumper who refuses to convict. Also, prosecuting each case presents obstacles, not least of which is the Supreme Court decision granting Trump immunity for official actions as president. So let’s improve his odds of exoneration from 3 in 10 to 8 in 10 — only a 20% chance in each case that he’s convicted and sent to prison. The math is still ugly: 0.8⁴ = 0.41, which means Trump has only a 41% chance of escaping prison, even when given exceptional odds. The most favorable math still lands him in prison.
Get Out of Jail Cards
There are two: 1) He retakes the White House, or 2) he (see above) reaches a plea deal.
The prison vaccine is Trump winning the presidency, or another GOP candidate winning and pardoning him. That resolves the federal charges — the greatest threats — and Trump likely believes he or some other Republican president could shut down the remaining prosecutions. Note: If he were totally focused on staying out of prison, he’d find a way to draft Nikki Haley to take his spot at the top of the ticket. I believe she’d win, cosplay Gerald Ford, and pardon Trump. Think about it.
Swingers
Ninety percent of the states are foregone conclusions. (Harris holds a 24-point lead in California; Trump has led Biden by as much as 19-points in South Dakota.) Pundits agree that only a handful of states will matter.
Harris only needs to win three of these states to take the White House: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. And the odds are looking good, great even. Biden won all three in 2020. Plus there’s the Sun Belt. In North Carolina, where Harris is now ahead, reflects how change hasn’t been good for Trump. He won the state in 2020 by 1.3%. But it’s in transition, a microcosm of the broader challenge the GOP faces: Its base is older and whiter, and that population is giving way to a younger, more diverse, better-educated electorate — more likely to vote blue.
Nationwide, since Trump won the White House in 2016, 32 million young people have become eligible to vote, and 20 million elderly voters have died — a swing of as much as 52 million voters. These younger citizens vote in greater numbers than previous younger generations, and they show no signs of becoming more conservative as they age. This will be the Gen Z(oom) election.
Devaluation
The closer we get to a Trump loss in 2024, the more his currency for a plea deal diminishes. A loss would cement the notion that he has cost the party too much for too long. Traditional Republican leaders are jonesing to see the back of Trump, and his acolytes now have power bases of their own. Fox will abandon him, the cloud cover provided by Lindsay Graham, Sean Hannity, and other sycophants will disappear, and the pool of jurors who’d refuse to convict will shrink. He’ll also lose access to any backroom influence his political allies might bring to bear on the DOJ or state and local prosecutorial offices. His currency is a single token, his potential return to the Oval Office. Once that’s gone, so is his leverage.
Trump won’t like making a deal, but the decision will be easier than many people think. He has no observable ideological commitment or loyalty to the Republican Party. In the 2022 midterms, Trump amassed a war chest of $108 million and gave … zero to GOP candidates.
And he gives up all the time. His track record is quitting: from his six bankruptcies, including the Trump Taj Mahal Casino, to his innumerable abandoned projects, such as his defunct New Jersey Generals football team and the disgraced education for-profit Trump University. And people who know him, including his former chief of staff, John Kelly, and his former footstool, Chris Christie, say he has a real fear of going to jail.
In sum, Trump’s odds of landing in prison are perhaps 50/50 right now and likely to get worse as we approach the election.
Deal or No Deal?
Is there a deal to be had? It wouldn’t be easy, but the array of prosecutors could work together to strike an agreement, for their own sake and the good of the nation. A coordinated negotiation would be complex, but nothing precludes the effort. The alternative is worse: Trials would be circuses, convictions would be subject to years of appeals, and any ultimate incarceration would be a logistical nightmare. And when we step back from the details of these cases, what should the U.S. be seeking? Is it accountability? Or for the nation to move on? The answer is yes, and a plea deal achieves this.
There’s a broader lesson here. Our successes and failures are not a function of probability, but patterns. Our actions, like interest, compound. A single kind act may go unnoticed, but kindness fosters enduring relationships and goodwill. Criminal acts may or may not result in punishment. But criminality screams for justice’s attention. And justice, while slow to act, is always listening.
Life is so rich,
P.S. This week on the Prof G Pod: Office Hours I share some of my favorite moments answering listeners’ questions on career advice. Listen on Apple or Spotify
P.P.S. Join Section next Wednesday for a free event on Navigating AI Data Privacy. Greg Shove will talk through common pitfalls, easy fixes, and developing an AI data policy for your org.
Remember when Galloway wrote that “Brand Harris” post where he said “The good news: The Biden economy has a lot to celebrate. Impressive job growth….The VP needs to come armed with receipts re: job creation and growth”
Then it turned out those job numbers were totally fake.
818,000 jobs that the Biden-Harris admin claims to have created do not exist.
It’s the largest downward revision in 15 years.
Fake.
Fraudulent.
Counterfeit numbers.
I wonder if Galloway is ever going to update that article or if he’s just going to let the fraud stand.
You can tell a lot about a person’s character by how they address their mistakes …..
Back in my day
Democracy meant voting for your party nominee in an open primary where the incumbant participated in debates and the Democrate party did not do everything possible to keep everyone else off ballot
look it up: Dem party held no debates, other candidates were kicked off the ballot in multiple states just a week or two before the vote with vague explanations. And Harris was installed by Party elite super delegates
but yea… democracy.
Thanks for the update. I read the 2023 original while scrolling through your site’s content (which I love) and that post stuck out as a conspicuous clang off the rim.
Things have changed significantly since then, of course, but this still comes across as the wishful thinking of an investor holding a heavy short position on Trump Inc. To mangle Keynes: The American voting public can remain irrational a lot longer than you can remain optimistic.
What’s more interesting to me — and what has me poring through your backlist — is the fact that Kamala Harris’ smooth ascendance to presidential candidacy has reframed the race as a more natural girls–vs.-boys showdown on where voters see the country truly heading.
This is something the GOP sensed weeks ago — as witnessed by the over the top male audience messaging at the RNC. I would also contend that all the “vibes” and “energy” stuff coming out of the DNC is soft acknowledgement that it wasn’t just Biden’s age and mental acuity that forced his ouster.
Given all the warnings you’ve put out about women outperforming men both academically and economically over the last decade, I’d be very interested in reading (or hearing) your thoughts on whether we’re seeing an election shaped less by Trump’s hammerlock on the Republican party and more by the Democratic party seeing rural women as a breakaway constituency.
In reality, Trump is his own worst enemy. Team Coconut for the win!
“A Marxist system is recognized by the fact that it spares the criminals and punishes political opponents.” – Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn
Right on. The only thing that can save him is prosecutorial misconduct (not likely) or the judge making a crucial mistake a higher court or courts (SCOTUS) can then use to let him off ( Oliver North who was the facilitator of the crack epidemic but error by the trial judge conveniently let off one of the most dangerous criminals off.)
I know this is not your area of interest per se, but do you have any thoughts as to who would replace Trump at this time. I have personal bets with friends that Trump will self destruct before the election…..and I believe he may be well down that road. Also, the obvious observation is that if he wins and can no longer serve as President, the alternative is truly terrifying.
I just listen to the vexing conversation you had with Nate Silver regarding why Harris did not pick Josh Shapiro as her VP. It would have been the most practical pick as he is a popular centrist governor of Pennsylvania, a state she needs to win.
The reason for the snub, sadly, is that it implies she and the democratic party succumbed to the pressure to not allow someone who is jewish onto the ticket because it is beholden to the loud, obnoxious anti-Isreal, pro-Palestinian and to some degree, anti-Semitic base that Scott is disgusted by.
The campaign is signaling that it does sympathize and gives a voice to that problematic base.
The first thing I have heard from voters younger than 50 is why the US funds Israel’s war while they have free healthcare and affordable housing the US does not. Many think Israel gets too much support and it is not clear why Israel gets so much support. Remember Lieberman turned on the democrats after the election was stolen from Al Gore. Memories die hard. Personally, I think Shapiro was a good pick but not a lock on Pennsylvania. Please note, Al Gore lost his home state and lost the election. Even Jimmy Carter won his home state even after his huge and uninformed mistake of boycotting the 1980 Olympics. So much for that thought. He showed he had no clue.
I agree that Josh Shapiro was not picked because he is Jewish. The US wants to pretend it is an arms length from the Israeli war on Gaza whilst being Israel’s biggest supporter and enable.
That said, Walz comes across well. Nice balance to have this older white dad type along side Harris.
I think Harris should announce that she’s lobbying to give Trump a blanket pardon in the interest of an election with no clouds over it. Trump will never say anything good about anybody he’s competing with and won’t be able to stand it. The electorate will have to take it at face value, a genuine desire to move on and eliminate any shadow if the democrats win. And if he wins, the outcome is the same. Nobody ever thinks about after the battle. There’s little downside–convicting him is hard and not good for the country, and if he wins, this is moot anyway.
Your idea is fascinating but wholly unrealistic. What you never talk about in your post is the impossibility of getting a Trump replacement on state ballots at this late date. There are many historical examples of elections with dead candidates on the ballot. The more likely scenario is that Trump’s name would have to remain on the ballot in most states. Even Biden cut it close in announcing his withdrawal. He could certainly seek a plea deal, but he could not trade his candidacy for it. And even if he could, the mixture of politics with his legal status would be highly problematic for any prosecutor and would probably be found to be a conflict of interest. But keep dreaming, Scott!
Scott, this is the second time I’ve commented on one of your posts. The first was your misguided article on RFK jnr. Your intolerance for people you dislike, completely disrespecting over 50pc of the us population does not become your otherwise thoughtful commentators. Why don’t you investigate the hold of big pharma or the military industrial complex on the institutions of power and the hills they have on your beloved democratic party, before being so condescending about the views of said 50pc
Option 3: Trump flies out election night at 2AM for Venezuela, or Saudi Arabia, because after all, the election was fixed, and all the charges against him are a witch hunt.
Well if you are into a) the Californication of America b) a VP who is the embodiment of the Peter Principle and the one of the most liberal senators , putting her in the league of progressive socialists c) a fake retired CSM who let anarchy reign in Minnesota then it doesn’t’ matter if we accuse you of TDS or DAS. And if your definition of democracy is a candidate so left that she couldn’t outperform lowfat milk in 2020 (2%), didn’t get a single primary vote in 2024 and was inserted by the elites not the voters, than I am truly grateful my three grown children never had to suffer one of your classes. and I used to think you were a relatively sharp person. And as a 3rd gen Californian , who is trying to escape, don’t forget her lovable nicknames in the Golden State – Kneepads or Heels Up Harris.
Disgusting misogynistic remark. Only a pig would post such a thing.
. Jim
AGREED. Many Black folks do not like how she made a name for herself prosecuting Black men and fighting to keep one on death row when he was innocent. However, she will have to answer for that. I see people complaining about California can leave. California is the pretty girl the plainer ones complain about because they do not get the attention the pretty girl gets. Kamala didn’t have sex with all of the voters when she won her elections. She certainly has some bad things in her past and likely future. I think the vote for her is like the vote for Biden meaning ANYTHING BUT TRUMP.
You may be right, but having a political opponent exit the race in exchange for not incarcerating him is a different brand of democracy than mine. The socialists hurt this country by using the courts for political gain, and I suspect even if Trump loses, Pandora’s box is now open.
Socialists using the courts? How.
Who am I to tell you how to write because you’re a great writer, but what this sentence: “In addition, there is a non-zero probability any jury will have a Trumper who refuses to convict.” I think it means that “There is every possibility that any jury will have a Trumper who refuses to convict.” Phrasing content negatively can be confusing. I’m a plain language expert with dozens of examples of why saying what might appear to be the opposite of what we mean can drive us crazy. Remember those True/False quizzes in school? Anyway, keep up the great work. As a Professor Emeritus of English, I can’t help myself 😉
George Carlin had a bit where he responded “I’m not unwell, thank you.” to people who asked how he was doing. He said it pissed people off because they had to think about what he said.
Well this safely allows me to hit the “unsubscribe” button as your bias clearly shows you are incapable of rational analysis and that you truly belong in the Marketing classroom – spin doctor bar none! You link to poll results behind a paywall that prevents any deeper inspection. You make a sham case based on logic that would only apply to a mere mortal, not an ex-President, then pretend to call that scenario out and layer it over with more false logic. You neglect the fact that the dozens of “felonies” were really misdemeanors until the cabal against Trump literally changed the law for this case specifically! You are a fool if you think Trump would take a plea-deal in exchange for dropping this race; he already took a bullet for it. Get out of your head and your uber-rich privileged life and talk to some real people. It’s been a short run, but I’m outta here.
Why subscribe? I just type “No Mercy No Malice” into Google on Friday. Saves me from all of those pesky emails subscribing would entail. And I wouldn’t say Trump actually “took” a bullet. More like deflected a bullet.
Incarceration, balanced against a life (post-deal) of golf clubs, sycophants, and porn stars, should weigh heavily on even the most delusional psyche.
Not too often I’ve laughed out loud at political commentary, but goddamn this is FUNNY!
LOCK HIM UP!
“It’s increasingly likely Trump will exit the presidential race in exchange for an omnibus deal, across jurisdictions, that keeps him out of jail…”
– Prof G.
I’m not even sure that such a thing is possible, much less legal. DJT has been charged with crimes in various states, which are all coming to their own conclusions based on how trials take place in each locale. To get a deal, all those attorneys general would need to coordinate their cases, and agree that one authority would take care of any final settlement. Let’s say that happened – who makes the deal – Merrick Garland? The Trump campaign’s case was always that these charges were politically motivated. The MSM and the White House have always strenuously denied this, rightly thinking that if such a view became conventional wisdom it would grossly undermine the democratic process. It would also put paid to the notion that the party in power doesn’t (and shouldn’t) go after its political enemies. That was the case made to Trump to prevent him from going after Hillary after 2016.
If such a deal were even publicly countenanced by POTUS and his AG, that is a yuge unpaid ad buy for DJT. There would be nothing seedier than a deal that took a legitimately nominated major party candidate out of political process to keep them out of jail. Eugene V. Debs got over 2 million votes for POTUS while sitting behind bars. Trump would get a lot more than that – and win – were he put in the same position.
Maybe it’s possible when the charges are politically motivated to chase Trump out of the race, and the charges themselves aren’t legally sound.
Seems plausible, but unlikely as GOP needs a replacement within next 1-2 weeks to be on the ballot. Too big a hurdle I think. Trump name will be on the ballots.
Written like the pragmatist you are. And whereas Trump is no pragmatist, such a plan would appeal to his vanity, fear and cowardice. Losing publicly is no match for saving face and resolving multiple problems. And since Trump has no problem denying reality, he’ll portray himself as a hero. Or victim. Either will work. Trump may not be smart, but he’s shrewd – and above all, opportunistic.
It may not happen, but as The Godfather would say….”it’s the smart move”.
Delusional, yes. The odds of Trump’s ego permitting him to drop out of the race: near zero. The odds that the Justice Department would consider a plea deal as a kind of quid pro quo (as you said, “in exchange”) for Trump dropping out of the race: zero. What kind of justice system would countenance such a corrupt plea bargain?
These things happen plenty to high profile criminals. For example, when Rajneesh avoided imprisonment by paying fines and agreeing to leave the U.S. Prosecutorial discretion, which does not have much accountability, is a really underappreciated force in the criminal justice system.
I happened to read this column just after finishing a chapter in Tom Nichols’ recently updated edition of The Death of Expertise (Oxford 2024). The chapter I’d just imbibed was entitled “When the Experts are Wrong,” which describes how and why otherwise highly credible people go astray in their professional and public pronouncements. A principal cause is what Nichols calls cross-expertise violations — when someone with expertise in a particular area succumbs to the temptation of opining on matters outside their domain of actual knowledge and experience. So, your indulging in this flight of fancy strikes me not so much as TDS, but as a textbook CEV. You are an incisive, original thinker and a gifted communicator, and this, like everything you write, is an enjoyable read. But you are not an expert in presidential politics or polling, nor in the law or legal systems. I follow and read you for your insights on business and technology, and as the father of a 20-something male struggling to build a business I deeply appreciate your focus on the challenges facing young men in our society. These are vital topics, fully worthy of your unique talents. We are inundated with amateur analyses of all things Trump — including/especially amongst the myriad talking heads crowding the sets of various cable news programs. The last thing we need is more of that; what we really need is more of the great stuff you have to offer in your own unique strike zone(s).
Agree with Rico. Best stick with your area of expertise. When you drift into Politics and foreign policy it becomes a rehash of the NYT, Economist, Guardian, BBC Democart/liberal groupthink. We are in the middle of a spectacular exercise in PRopaganda by the MSM to convince us that Harris is the second coming of Obama. A detatched analysis of the tricks and tools would be far more interesting than simply repeating their script. Or perhaps not? Perhaps the real story is how ‘experts’ in one field are easily manipulated in others? Perhaps, unwittingly, you are the story now Scott?
You’re right. I think you are truly deranged. Your obsession with the opposition candidate is historically out there. You could take 10 similar facts about any leading candidate from any party and paint a picture of fanatical fascism, enemy of democracy. Unfortunately, you’re clearly hitting a note, with your popularity on the rise, in pied-piper fashion. And creating a picture of an organized, all powerful, Democrat machine too punish and control the outcomes of allegations against the former president makes you sound like the one yearning for a dictatorship. You’re not on the side of the righteous, you’re on the side of crazy zealotry.
Worried about democracy? Let’s have a candidate without a primary, let’s bully the tech companies to not report bad news for democrats , let’s dismiss military members for not taking a shot. Yes , we should be worried about democracy
There is no way he is going to jail. Putting him in jail only makes him a martyr. This is a bad idea. The best outcome is a clear and decisive election win in November.
Always a fascinating read. That 52 million votes have ‘evolved’ since 2016 is formidable…and NOT favorable to the republican candidate.
Interesting, with three adult children, who have all successfully entered the workforce, 2 believe in the economic & societal destruction under Obama and Biden, remember that wars, Georgia under Obama, Ukraine & Iran/Hamas on Biden’s watch and the Peace and Prosperity under Trump. Number three, a young lady , was a social issues (one dimensional) Biden voter, and she is beginning to see the larger picture and with hope and grace , maybe vote for Trump this time around.
Total wishful thinking. Never going to happen. Trump only quits when he runs out of OPM (Other People Money). As long as the MAGA crowd funds his legal expenses, he’ll go on and on.
Calculating odds is for the rational, which Trump demonstrably is not. He is a delusional, pathetic old man, arguably exhibiting symptoms of frontotemporal dementia. I wish you were right, but I fear that you’re not.
Smart men make deals! Egotistical men go all in.
Love the article. Funny salient and insightful. Math on probability of Trump going to jail is not correct. You can only multiply probabilities when events are independent (like rolling dice). Trump trials are not independent events (same person, not done in a vacuum, things like supreme court correlates with all of them).
I’ll sum up Scott’s post. Orange man bad!
Scott, i like you man. but this was pretty embarrassing.
put a number on it. what odds do you put on him quitting the race? even? 2:1? 3:1? put your money where you mouth is and bet against a Trump supporter, take their money.
I love many of your insight but like many in the commentariat, you have TDS bad. very bad. lampshading it doesn’t make it not true.
Scott, with all respect, I believe you are too young to understand Donald. His mentor was Roy Cohen, of McCarthy fame. Roy taught Donald everything that has worked for him in the last 65 years. And that thing is, never concede, never apologize, never compromise. Donald is as likely to drop out as Roy is to come back to life. But there’s a second reason this could never happen. Merrick Garland is a wimp. A weak man. He doesn’t have the will to offer Trump such a deal. He knows it will be rejected and he and his family will become the next target of Trump’s brownshirts. Ain’t gonna happen.
So insightful, thank you.
It was Roy Cohn. Just sayin’….
Even if every syllable of this argument were true, this will never happen. The Democrats we’ll never agree to have Trump step down from the ticket, which would take away their best chance of winning the election. This is a far higher priority for them than uniting the country.
So sad for the US that these are our two choices, both beyond horrible. Is this the best we can do?
Your “arguments” are not stronger but your derangement and delusion are. The trump documents case has been thrown out by the federal judge Cannon, in part because prosecutor Smith is illegally appointed. Which is why the January 6th case will be thrown out. The Bragg 34 felony verdict will be overturned on appeal for violations of Trump’s immunity claims as per the POTUS decision. The Georgia Willis RICOcase will be thrown out for the same reason. Trump four, government zero. Stick to your expertise of brainwashing college mushbrains. Politics and law are way above your pay grade.
The documents case was definitively not thrown out. Cannon didn’t even seat a jury before challenging the special counsel provision as unconstitutional. It was her way of getting out from having to adjudicate it. It will still go to trial.
A few posts ago I commented about how I tuned into you while I was working on my first masters degree as back then you were talking business. I’m now finishing my 3rd degree an MBA. My undergraduate degree from all those years ago was Political Science. I mention all this because you have serious flaws you overlook in your political assessments/ analysis. Second, as I posted before I tuned into your for BUSINESS and LEARNING. You have become a political pundit with your posts and podcasts. Time for me to tune out. You may as well be a talking head on MSLSD at this point. Good luck!
Person complains about free internet content 🙄
This would be a good result for the country and I would love to see it happen but I think there is too little time and too much complexity for it to be achieved, particularly given the number of public officlals who would have to agree to it and the paralyzing fear public officials have of making any decision or statement that someone somewhere might criticize– a sympton of the lack of leadership in the country. Regardless of who wins the election I fear we are likely headed down a dark road as neither candidate even mentions the ballooning public debt and the need to rein in spending– which will soner or later (and probably sooner than many think) bring about an economic crisis much more serious than the 2008/2009 GFC. Both sides seem to think they can promise endless and never ending handouts (debt relief, home purchase subsidies, guranteed income, reparations and on and on and on) with no limit. Eventually a limit will be imposed by the market and political and social chaos might well ensue. Nikki Haley was right I think when she said that the first party that nominated a young canddiate would win this election (I thought she was a great candidate). For me, the first candidate that serious addresses runaway spending and ballooning debt will get my vote. Given that neither candidate in this cycle will do that, I will go with the younger candidate and hope she pivots to the center nothwithstanding the enormous pull that every Democrat feels from the extreme left.
While my distaste for Trump borders on being irrational, I’d love to see a take that really addresses the power of the US President in a more level-headed way. Why are we so bad at educating the public on the very minimal effect that the US President actually has on the economy and the direction of the country as a whole. When we look at the effect of the President on something like gas prices or inflation, we’re talking about the ability to change these things by small fractions of a percent. If the inflation reduction act was never in place or Trump was in the White House instead of Biden, there would be very little effect on the rate of inflation that was experienced by almost every country in the world. I hear smart people talking about big swings in the stock market like the President has anything to do with it and it’s maddening. Trump was a huge beneficiary of following six years of steady growth from Obama and Biden was the beneficiary of following a pandemic response that was botched on every level (resulting in misleading numbers following the rebound). Why can’t we push journalists to do better in educating the public so data isn’t used so prominently to lie to the public and affect the way they vote?
^^^THIS is the most important comment on here. It is the only long term solution. The rest are temporary bandaids and duct tape attempting to hold the nation together. While we certainly need some of these temporary fees to carry the nation through, the ultimate focus needs to be about educating upcoming generations on how to think well and for themselves.
Edit: “fees” should be “fixes”
Edit: “fees” should be “fixes”.
Gravity has pulled me towards being more selective in consuming better content, given all the “noise” and poor journalism. This is the best article I have read in the last two weeks, and your insights are spot on. Please keep up the good work. P.S. Podcasts have been excellent too!
Quite thought-provoking!
But I say…..Make him run. Don’t offer a hint of a deal!
Face it, TDS is a derogatory term, a form of toxic criticism. It has little to do with political actions or positions. Trumps’ psychotic pathology is consistent with rich powerful men of his age, and “grabbing pussy” was meant to muse. The term was rightfully coined for Bush, BDS for invading Iraq “weapons of mass destruction”, that was derangement. Does mislabeling payments for ‘hush money 34 times even classify as 34 felonies. Time to ask does TDS impede normal judgement and manifest psychotic maleficent motivation. It’s important to discern the difference between business classifications, felony convictions and starting a war.
I continue to espouse the wisdom of
Prof G, the GOAT of IQ and EQ insight.
I’ve done quite well for myself but I believe my achievements would have come earlier if I was exposed to Prof Galloway at a younger age.
Excellent! As a multi-variate statistician – I concur!
I don’t like Trump, but you’re forgetting to factor in that when Kamala Harris does things like name Mr. Couch Obsession as her VP, I don’t like her any more than I do Trump. Sorry, but your arguments turn to walz when I don’t like either of them, Scott. For me to actually like a candidate, that person has to be something other than a sorry piece of walz.
I pay close attention to anything Alan Dershowitz says these days. According to Prof Dershowitz most of Trumps prosecutions are politically motivated and don’t stand a chance. Who to believe? Hopefully the courts will do the right thing and we can get our country on the right path again because our bigger problems are external in nature.
I haven’t read your work in a while, and upon returning, I notice a SUBTLE shift in your political stance. It seems driven by factors other than your genuine self, like a progressive which talks and acts like a conservative (a common trait among protecting status socialists – the rigid on their positioning, but the others cannot be rigid! ahahah).
Your very interesting piece (bravo!), while intelligent, left me appalled by your acceptance-focused approach, which prioritizes ‘fixing’ Trump’s issues over discussing candidates’ plans to improve America. This stance undermines democracy and equality, by the way, YOUR core socialist principles. You are admitting that one goes to jail only if poor? and more than half of it has been brought by DEMOCRATS! ahahah starting with Clinton’s BJ at the oval office!)
At least Trump is direct, unlike those who hide behind subtlety.
When will we vote for projects, not protectorates of privileges?
I am a registered Independent, as I share your disdain for PARTY-CRACY (our SECRETARIES)
Professor Galloway,
Thank you for your insight that remind us that there is hope and that justice may be slow but will return. As a country we need to focus on education so that ethics and morality have a seat at the table. No one is above the law. The fact that there are so many issues to settle should not distract us from taking them on. A felon should never have the position to make deals and disparage others. It’s time for the adults to take charge and restore our faith that highest good for all is restored.
The “orange tornado” has been causing havoc ever since his first foray with his Dad breaking Fed rules on discriminating folks in NYC housing. His faustian contract must be iron clad to slip, slide, negate, bully, denigrate and give middle fingers to the gentry, military and contract workers.
Letting him off, because, is another foolish “this is his first offense” schtick.
The man really deserves a comeuppance, and HE knows he deserves his fate.
He cannot send any more “truths, tweets, rants or pr crap” from prison.
This is how Trumpism dies. Kill patient Zero.
Dropping out after being nominated is much different than doing it before. First of all, I think it would make Vance the GOP nominee. There might even be states where Trump’s name has to be on the ballot. It would be a complete mess. The confusion at the top of the ballot, would make electing Republicans down ballot very difficult. I know that Trump doesn’t care about the party, but they care about winning elections, so I’m guessing they would sue Trump. This scenario is a Democrat’s dream (including me), but it won’t happen. Trump is the nominee and if he is defeated, he will have to stand trial.
Love your writing Scott, particularly on the challenges of young men. I’ve been recommending your book the Algebra of Wealth to a lot of Gen Z folks.
I believe Kamala can definitely win. But lets see what happens after the first debates including Walz/Vance. Harris and Walz present a target rich environment. If Trump took your branding course he would win in a landslide. Keep up the great work! I don’t always agree with you on issues but I respect your opinion on matters.
Scott – As much as I would love to see something like this happen, I think you’re underestimating the difficulty of securing a plea deal involving 1) multiple jurisdictions of Federal and state justice departments and 2) the gaggle of Keystone Kops who serve as Trump’s legal “team”, without 3) springing news leaks. If news of an effort like this were to leak, it’s game over. But hey, it’s fun to dream.
Scott, Your argument is compelling but we have a ways to go. Trump has shown who he is so I will agree that this is Kamala’s election to lose. If she steers towards the center I think she wins, but if she embraces the left I think she loses and…it…will not..be…close.
You’re once again forgetting Trump’s GIANT ego, and how desperately, DESPERATELY he wants to be president. He wants to be the FOCUS of all attention, all the time. He won’t drop out. Because he knows if he wins there’s a very good chance he won’t have to leave office. (Read Robert Kagan’s 30 NOV op-ed in WaPo.) He knows he could be the US’s Robert Mugabe. And he knows if he loses, many of his nutbag supporters will rise up in open rebellion. Sorry…..Trump isn’t dropping out. And either way the election goes, dark times are ahead. Are your bunkers ready?
I know you hate Trump, and as a conservative I don’t even want him, but I’m curious what you actually think about Harris and if she would be a good President? She seems liike she would be a disaster too.
I find it endlessly amusing that the Republican party has hitched their wagon to somebody who is NOT a conservative. Must drive true conservatives absolutely batshit.
Anthony Scaramucci also said that if Trump is way behind in the pools he may drop out because he can’t accept losing.
*Yoda voice
“mmm… the gaslighting is strong with this one”
Try that MOFO. Jared and Ivanka were at Kelly slaters wavepool surfing in Fresno this week. Even they don’t care about Agent Orange
I agree wholeheartedly.
Another option would be for the Trump and Harris campaigns to negotiate a deal in October where if she wins Trump allocates and Harris agrees to a pardon if he fuc…leaves the political scene and goes back to selling shirts and ties. This would a M eliorate his fringe who is fighting for his defece, end the trial activity and press bds that could go on forever and would undermine the country’s mission. Just rub him off the blackboard the way a monoclonal antibody expunged a tumor, present company includedm
you make the same mistake that everyone does with Trump, you forget what and who he is. A malignant narcissist who has no tie to reality.
That this despicable excuse for a human being is even in the running is a damning indictment for a nation. He was unfit to run at Access Hollywood. And you have a GOP who lives in fear of him – say anything and expect the wrath of maga death threats and all. This sort of vileness has no place in civilised society.
You’re a great writer, and this is fun to discuss. But the premise…? You are saying there are (or will) be Federal prosecutors negotiating with Trump to drop out? I’m not a lawyer but plea deals concern punishments not political behavior.
Scott brilliant as always I worry that plea deals will put someone else in the republican ticket that will do better we need to crush this version of the party so a rational Republican Party will take it’s place
No way his ego would allow him to drop out, no way Haley would win and no way he should get a pardon, plea deal, get out of jail card… he needs to be held accountable for his crimes finally THEN the nation will heal!
You forgot one thing:
If Trump walks, TMTG (DJT) crashes
Not gonna happen for one simple reason: almost everyone wants him to run. Dems want him to run because he is the easiest candidate to beat. Trumpers want him to run because they believe in him. The only people who don’t want him around are Never Trump Republicans, maybe 30% of the GOP, so 15% of the voters.
Harris wins and then pardons Trump. What better way to heal the nation and move on. Put this sad episode in American politics in the rear view mirror and never hear his name again.
As a Canadian watching this roadshow unravel (again) I can only hope you sort it out down there.
good luck
The Biden / Harris administration has been an economic disaster. Between free money, the $1.9T “infrastructure” bill, college loan forgiveness and numerous other programs that do nothing but drive inflation higher, we are a bug in search of a windshield with total debt approaching $35T. Granted, Trump approved a great deal of spending during his time in office, but roughly 50% was bipartisan “rescue” packages related to Covid. The amount of program expansion the Democrats want to create will continue to accelerate this huge amount of debt that the average citizen simply can’t understand. Until the Chinese, Saudis and others stop buying Treasuries. Then we’re looking at a massive Depression-like situation. And as we’ve seen with movement in individual states, rich people vote with their feet, which is why Texas, Florida, Nevada and other no or low income tax states are seeing massive inflows. If I was a billionaire, I’d be looking for a home on some tax-friendly island. The Dems continue to foolishly think the rich are an unlimited resource they can continue to tap – until they can’t.
Texas, Florida both will be under water and hell holes for workers yes no taxes and no health care and ohh AI to soon replace all the workers. The guy who says women should be grabbed by the p and mocks the disabled can never be wrong of course.
facts.
“college loan forgiveness and numerous other programs that do nothing but drive inflation higher” – I’m curious how you came to this conclusion. The student loan forgiveness is a poorly-titled program, that actually helps Americans against predatory lending practices. The loans being forgiven have actually been fully repaid, in most cases, with predatory interest rates causing the borrower to pay outrageous amounts. If the principal has been paid and then some, why should the American taxpayer think it appropriate to continue to extort their fellow Americans? The American taxpayer should not be in the business of making money off the backs of their fellow taxpayer in this manner. Privatizing student loans is what led to this, by design of the GOP, and gives us a glimpse into what privatizing Social Security could look like.
“The Dems continue to foolishly think the rich are an unlimited resource they can continue to tap” – I continue to hear how the American middle-class has been squeezed to its breaking point and how no one can afford groceries or gas. Yet you feel it better to squeeze more from the middle-class than the wealthy? Much better to draw water from a well with water than one that is dry, no? Unless, of course, the claims that the Middle-class is shrinking and cannot afford basic necessities is a false claim or a flair of dramatics. So which is it?
I can’t believe you seriously think that Trump has any chance of imprisonment.
I enjoy your economic analysis for the most part, but I suspect that your intellect has been tangled up a bit here.
What do you think?
I would like to see the same aproach for all the Biden family and their case with justice , and then , I will believe is DAS .
The math here is compelling. And let’s say he loses, and there’s a fairly peaceful transfer of power and Harris in sworn in in Jan ’25. Trump will announce his candidacy for 2028 that afternoon, as part of a “kitchen sink” defence.
But I see a much bigger issue. I think that Trump, a not-very-bright man now being propelled forward by white Christian nationalists and weird techno-fascist billionaires (who increasingly see him less as leading from the front and more as a minesweeper ahead of their advance) won’t let him quit — and it turns to violence between Election Day and Inauguration Day.
Maga is a religious movement now. Men who see reward in some afterlife are notoriously cheap with life — their own and that of others.
Let’s be honest. In a post, he called her a mediocre VP and explained that she was equipped to be a better executive operator. He also cited the changed data.
oops meant for this for a reply, not sure how to delete.
While it’s a dramatic analysis, Scott, for the good of the country pundits on both sides should be making cases to refrain from lawfare of past Presidents. So far, I’ve seen R better than D in this regard.
Perhaps to avoid this one should not commit crimes in the first place. I will not accept a Justice Department that does NOT pursue criminals.
And your memory must not stretch back too far, as I recall…::checks notes:: as many as four Congressional investigations, prompted by Republicans, against Hillary Clinton, including 10 separate House and Senate committees conducting hearings, one of which featured Clinton herself testifying for 11 hours.
Republicans also ran up the taxpayer’s bill by investigating Hunter Biden for several years in regards to charges that are barely a blip on law enforcement’s radar when it comes to the Average Joe. Sure, the GOP got the conviction they longed for of Hunter Biden, on a charge for which HE HAD ALREADY PLED GUILTY TO. Wow, fantastic work, GOP.
Incredible how Prof G flipped from calling Kamala mediocre to now be the savior without her talking about policy or even offering an interview. It was like a switch of a button. You have severe TDS!!!
I agree!
Well written and I agree!
Let’s be honest. In a post, he called her a mediocre VP and explained that she was equipped to be a better executive operator. He also cited the changed data.
I think you missed the point. She’s crushing Trump in polls by saying little. Scott says that.
It’s not TDS if the broad population finally feels like it can breathe again now that we only have a 50/50 chance of a doddering octogenarian (one inherently stupid and the other an incumbent president weakened by his advancing age) and it’s reacting with a trump-free rumspringa.
Being angry at math is like being angry at oxygen.
I find it amazing that anyone trusts the polls given the 2016 debacle.
This is TDS, “She’s done this by saying (wait for it) nothing” The hypocrisy of those words, so he agrees that she is just an empty bezel who has done nothing as a vice president and mainstream media is doing all the work for her. And that is not math, polls are easy to trick if you oversample for the party you are interested, and since you are so interested in math you should look at Kamala’s popularity in the past, I think it was like 2%.
And in 2016, Trump had zero experience in anything but his small family real estate business and a single lucrative TV contract (where he was actually only the secondary beneficiary after Mark Burnett) Otherwise, he had a long trail of failed get-rich-quick schemes. I’ve been a NYer since 1999; we all knew what he was.
Saying nothing or saying nonsensical things about policy clearly doesn’t exclude you from winning the US presidency. I’d love to see nuanced debates about policy with 3+ parties taking different angles, but that ain’t America.
Sounds like you are the one with TDS. “Saying nothing” is not hypocritical unless your explicit strategy is to say something. she doesn’t need to at this point. As Napoleon said, never correct your enemy when he is making a mistake. Trumps spluttering may jazz up a few folks like you, but the majority of America is tired of his 2am bathroom screeds, his utter disdain for any subject beyond his personal interests, and sheer incoherence/virulence of his speeches.
Her most prominent policy so far is to whip up her followers to call people “weird” and try to imply that a guy with a couple of kids is an incel to play to her followers’ weird bigotry against men who haven’t gotten laid in a while, which is the definition of incel. Scott’s not stupid enough to try to justify that weirdness, which limits arguments for Kamala Harris a lot.
I saw the news reports on Kamala Harris’ speeches today. By her own definitions, she and Walz are cowards and perverted bullies for going after incels and trying to get her minions to call anyone who could disagree with them “weird.”
I hope she will look in the mirror, realize this, apologize for her campaign thus far, and make sure she doesn’t repeat her perversion of bullying.
I’m not sure there’s much left to Kamala and Walz when you take away their perverted bullying, but she should try to be less of a perverted cowardly bully nonetheless.
Kamala, if you’re reading this, it’s what you should do for the good of the nation. Since it’s your own advice, you don’t look very presidential when you don’t follow it yourself.
A plea deal won’t happen, and is outrageous given the magnitude of his crimes. Trump is far more likely to try and flee the country (you observed he’s a quitter), but the universe of willing recipients is diminishing. It will be so good to see this dreck of a human being and his hideous entourage kicked out of the public space. America can do so much better, and that’s just around the corner after the election.
This was a troll email. While I don’t want Trump or Harris as President (Haley is much preferred), your focus on “justice” ignores: 1) Biden campaign that blamed Russia on Hunter Biden’s laptop issues. This deception helped Biden get elected. Where’s the justice?, 2) Biden brought and kept confidential documents at his home and shared them with his biographer. Just because he readily gave them back when he was caught, doesn’t mean that he should not be indicted, 43) Schiff lied for 2 1/2 years that he had evidence of Trump/Russia collusion. No evidence was presented. Shouldn’t be indicted for sedition? 4) Go through the list of congress people who are worth $100M (start with Pelosi) and you will have to find crimes were committed (inside information, etc.) for them to attain their wealth. So, for you to highlight Trump’s criminality – especially the Jan. 6th indictment, are words coming from a typical Dem puppet. And, to think you went to UCLA…
The issue with the Biden Laptop was that the content found on the device was supplied by Russian assets. The communication from both sides led to the confusion on this: conservatives thought liberals were saying the laptop itself was fake, which it was not, while liberals thought conservatives were saying the contents on the laptop was real. Both sides were not really listening to the other and not communicating effectively.
The laptop WAS/IS real, however the content on the device could not be verified and contained information typically tied to Russian propaganda.
Could it have been authentic? Sure, but to say so now would only be making an assumption.
I wonder if anyone has calculated the number of mostly Republican voters who died from Covid after believing Trump’s guidance against vaccination and that numerical impact on the swing state voting population?
I feel you really understated the potential impacts of the supreme court decision re: immunity on past, present, and future cases. In addition, as has been made increasingly clear through legal discovery and ongoing criminal and civil litigation, Trump does not have “unlimited resources” to continue to defend himself. That said, I truly hope that we see accountability under the law and that America can turn a crucial corner in the upcoming election. In the meantime, keep doing what you do well, Scott!
How’d your DAS hold up during the Democrat coup ousting Joe Biden? Kamala Harris earned the same number of votes in this primary as she did in the last. She was installed courtesy of a wealthy, elite cabal of Democrats who didn’t care a whit about Biden’s age or mental acuity. Proof? Prior to his debate performance, Dems, including Harris, publicly marveled at his vim and vigor. Even Karine Jean-Pierre couldn’t keep up with him. It’s all BS. Gender and skin color are not an accomplishment – but that is all Kamala Harris has going for her.
Yes! Spot on.
Prof G, you have TDS. Regardless, you make salient points here. And…I’m all for it. Kamala is a bumbling moron and Trump is imploding.
Wow, yes, this is TDS at its high point, or, low, however you look at it.
Before the assassination attempt and the debate, the Dems were hiding Kamala from the press, she’s such a mess. Now she’s Young! Joyful! The Future! Isn’t all this obvious to you? The backroom dealing? The media complicity? The “polls”? (Really. When was the last time somebody asked for your opinion over a phone? Just imagine the loser who actually answers.)
What’s most absurd is that the Democrats are claiming that they are trying to save democracy by pulling this stunt, giving us a candidate who was rejected mightily in 2020 by, ahem, democracy, while Trump has been cruising through the Republican process with full transparency, and may very well win again, because he will get more EC votes. But, somehow, that’s dangerous to our democracy? And those convictions? Get real. Sham prosecutions, all. Third world banana Republic stuff.
Oh, and, as far as age, Vance is 39. Aren’t you the one always complaining about the geriatrics running things? Or, is he too weird for you?
Vance is too weird for me (I know what he is – he’s a bought and paid-for shill for the VC capital he fellates, and thus takes on whatever policy flavor he senses while fellating them) — but more importantly he’s probably too “weird” for women, who aren’t just more numerous but also vote more reliably.
As a marketing guy, from a marketing guy, you make sense most of the time. However, and you should heed this advice, you are veering far from what you know to expressing what you feel about areas you know little to mostly nothing about. For someone that at one time felt grateful for so much, your inflated ego and is doing you in. You have chosen a topic that half of this country feels very different than you, and you only inflamed. But Scott, that is what you do of late..you simply cannot just be relevant in areas you know sonething about. You are climbing a ladder seeking greater relevance that won’t hold your weight. I liked the old Scott, but this newly minted master of the universe crap is making you look like a dick. There is much to learn from what you know, but little to nothing to learn from the Scott who knows everything about everything. Even Atlas had a hard time holding up the world. Best get back to what you know, hug your kids and get over yourself. You are insufferable lately.
OK Trumper.
Sitting here in Cape Town 😎 and reading this, is a transformational view for me. Trumps back is literally up against the wall. I find the last few months of America’s change of political landscape fascinating 🧐 thank you Scott for a brilliantly penned article 🙏
Pls figure out how you can reduce this to a paragraph. Or 10 bullet points. I had forgotten so much of what you point out. I thought the Donald– a very lucky sob– had rid himself of legal woes. I don’t think most Americans really understand that if Trump loses he is in real trouble. Does he?