After The Fires
My hometown of Los Angeles is experiencing wildfires that have torched a surface area greater than Boston or San Francisco. Students at UCLA, my alma mater, were warned to prepare for an evacuation order that, thankfully, didn’t come. Friends lost homes, others don’t know if their houses are still standing, or they’re contemplating moving back to what feels like a blast zone. At least 12,000 structures have been destroyed. The death toll stands at 25 — given the scale of the disaster, that is remarkably low and a testament to the good work of front-line responders and the broader community. The LA fires will likely go down as the costliest natural disaster in U.S. history. The question now: What happens after the fire?
Zero to Blame
The first rule of fires is simple: Everyone works together to put out the fire, as fire is apolitical, unemotional, and does not discriminate. But just as electric cars go from zero to 60 faster than cars with combustion engines, digitized information accelerates from zero to blame much faster than analog media.
Immediately, the left claimed it was climate change and blamed Republicans. Maybe, or perhaps you’re tempting fate when you build hundreds of thousands of tinder boxes in a desert where high and low pressure systems collide to create tidal waves of hot air (i.e., the Santa Ana winds).
First Lady-elect Elon Musk blamed DEI. The shit-poster-in-chief, Donald Trump, blamed California Governor Gavin Newsom, for failing to sign the “water restoration declaration,” providing much needed water to emergency services. The problem? A: That declaration does not exist. In local news, the billionaire real estate developer who lost in LA’s most recent mayoral election blamed the city for fire hydrant failures in Pacific Palisades; the system was pushed beyond its limits, as water demand was 4x normal demand for 15-plus hours. (Note: The people screaming the loudest about wasteful government spending are always the first to demand government help in a crisis.)
LAFD Chief Kristin Crowley took time out from fighting the fires to blame Mayor Karen Bass for cutting $17.6 million from the department’s budget. The department’s $895 million budget actually increased by $58 million as a result of the latest union contract. To get that higher pay to firefighters, the department reduced spending on equipment and training. The mayor’s response added to the drama, fueling rumors that the chief had been fired. Right-wing podcasters blame Fire Chief Crowley’s gayness, saying she was a DEI hire. Note: She has outstanding qualifications. We’ve become stupid, hurting others while hurting ourselves, with algorithms and politics that reward divisive rhetoric. Both sides engage in this, but the right is louder and bolder (i.e., more full of shit) than the left. It’s far more likely that climate change played a role in the fires than China, Ukraine, or DEI.
Information Wasteland
Contrary to viral claims on social media, the Hollywood sign didn’t burn down. One clue that the AI-generated images were fake: an extra letter, making it “Hollywoodd.” Adjudicated liar Alex Jones falsely claimed that firefighters were battling the blazes using ladies’ handbags as buckets because officials had donated their equipment to Ukraine. His post on Twitter/X has 29 million views. As an LAFD public information officer told the Wall Street Journal, “It takes people and time to track down or debunk social media rumors — it takes us away from doing more important things.”
By coincidence, the fires began the same day Mark Zuckerberg, the Immortan Joe of the information wasteland, announced that Meta would end fact-checking and replace the program with community notes. Zuckerberg cited free speech. His decision was about bending the knee and shareholder value. Zuck also made a stupid comment about companies needing more masculine energy. He believes masculinity is increasing your personal wealth by sacrificing the safety of the most vulnerable. No, masculinity is about protecting the vulnerable. See: aerial firefighters demonstrating expertise at enormous personal risk to save lives and protect homes.
Live, Local, Late-Breaking?
Twice, LA County officials mistakenly sent evacuation alerts to 10 million people. These were potentially dangerous errors. Old-school local broadcasters corrected these mistakes in real time, heading off a catastrophic panic. Meanwhile, Watch Duty, a nonprofit app that tracks emergencies and sends real-time alerts, has had 2 million downloads since the fires began; it’s currently available in 22 states, operating with a team of 200 volunteers and 15 full-time employees.
Unfortunately, local news is in short supply across the U.S. Over the past decade, there have been $23 billion worth of broadcast TV ownership deals, further concentrating an industry in which the three largest owners already control 40% of all local news stations and are present in over 80% of media markets. Zooming out to include print, radio, and digital, more than half the counties in the U.S. have little or no access to local news. Most of these “news deserts” are located in high-poverty areas and serve historically marginalized communities. People say digital media gives everyone a voice. Maybe. But digital media has definitely drowned out actual journalists.
Rebuilding Homes
The question isn’t whether to rebuild, but where. Pacific Palisades is a wonderful place to live, but those amazing views of beautiful topography of foothills, mountains, canyons, and ridgelines are located in fire zones. Early estimates put the total cost of the wildfires at $250 to $275 billion. The property insurance bill is expected to easily top $20 billion. California’s insurance market was already in crisis, as leading insurers had done the math and decided to leave the state or not renew policies in fire-prone areas. California’s state-backed FAIR Plan is the insurer of last resort in these areas. Statewide, the number of FAIR Plan policies in 2024 increased 40% from 2023, and 85% in Pacific Palisades. Continuing to underwrite wood-built craftsman homes in Altadena (median home value: $1.3 million) and mansions along PCH is a wealth transfer from California’s taxpayers to some of its wealthiest people.
This isn’t unique to California; 10 states across the political spectrum, including Florida and Texas, sued a federal flood insurance program after it adjusted premiums to better reflect climate realities. As one meme put it: You may not believe in climate change, but your insurance company does.
A Crisis Is a Terrible Thing to Waste (for Rich People)
Governor Newsom has proposed a $2.5 billion Marshall Plan to kick-start rebuilding. That, emotionally, feels right. However, I’d argue it is (yet again) a transfer of wealth from the middle class to the rich under the auspices of a tragedy. Covid caused the greatest intergenerational theft this century. Flushing the markets with $7t in stimulus, 85% of which wasn’t needed, but sent asset prices soaring. This was great for the incumbents (home and equity owners) and awful for entrants — the young, who will have to pay for our largess via deficits.
The median value of a home in the Palisades is $3.3m, or 8x the national median. I’m not arguing against disaster relief, but against the continued gestalt in our society where we always find a narrative and empathy to bail out the rich while throwing some loaves of bread and a circus at the poor. I live on the water in Florida, where insurance rates have skyrocketed … as they should. Homes vulnerable to the floods and wildfires caused by climate change tend to be in beautiful areas, on the water or in hilly, dry climates. I don’t believe anybody has a birthright to live there and the risks/costs of doing so shouldn’t be transferred to people who can’t live on the beach. Also, will we ever get serious about climate change if we normalize (i.e., bail out) the powerful, who are the agents of change in a capitalist America?
Make Los Angeles Great (i.e., Los Angeles) Again
Los Angeles will be rebuilt, as it’s wonderful and worth it … regardless of who ultimately bears the cost. After the 1991 Oakland fire, 8 out of 10 residents rebuilt. After disasters, most people decide to stay. The project, however, will put Trump’s biggest policies under the microscope. Trump has vowed to deport millions of people. I’ve written that we won’t do that, as immigrant labor is too profitable. In LA, 28% of the construction workforce is undocumented. Trump’s tariff plan — 60% on goods from China, 20% on everything else the U.S. imports — is an elegant way to turn a no-brainer building boom into an own-goal that’ll make us nostalgic for Covid supply chain disruptions and post-pandemic inflation. My prediction: Trump will turn against his plans, blame someone else for his fatuous ideas, and declare victory while standing next to James Woods at a groundbreaking ceremony in LA.
GoFundMe (GoFuckYourself)
I donated to several charities and GoFundMe campaigns in the aftermath of the fires. To its credit, GoFundMe has raised millions for people affected by the catastrophe. Since its founding, the for-profit firm, last valued at $600 million in 2015, has processed $30 billion in crowdfunding. That’s a lot of cabbage … for GoFundMe. I paid a 14% fee to donate. An LA County Supervisor complained about the same 14% charge. The company’s VP for communications reached out to me to clarify that its standard transaction fee is 2.9% + $0.30 and insisted that tipping is optional. However, the tip “option” is the default, and I have about as much choice as the service charge on a bill at a Miami restaurant. GoFundMe needs to be more transparent that tips are optional and opt-in — that’s how tipping works. And if the organization really wants a tip, here it is: Don’t treat your customers like assholes and claim an opaque charge is “optional.”
Neighbors
Neighbors are helping neighbors. Mexico didn’t send their best people, they sent some of their bravest, i.e. firefighters. Canada and seven Western states, including Texas, also sent aid. Across Los Angeles and beyond, businesses and regular people didn’t ask if help was needed, they just showed up. My personal favorite: the street vendors who turned the Rose Bowl and Santa Anita Park race track into donation centers. Honorable mention: the 900-plus incarcerated volunteer firefighters working on the front lines for $10 a day. As one of them explained, for the first time in his life he has a job, and the community values his contributions. We should give the same opportunity to every young American by investing in a national service program, as it would benefit every community in the country.
Love and Fire
I’ve been thinking a lot about love the past decade, as I’m not that good at it — I’ve had few people in my life who I loved and loved me. My definition of “love” used to be caring about someone’s well-being more than my own. This misses the mark, however, as it would mean I only love my immediate family, which I don’t think is true. A better definition: Love is giving witness to someone’s life. To notice them and their lived experience. My friend Rabbi Steve Leder said something that hit hard this week. Calling people and asking if you can help (what I was doing) is the wrong thing to do. The right thing? Just help. Pick up their dogs, drop off food, send a photo of the room in your house they can stay in, wire them cash. Don’t ask, do. Are there people in LA you love? Then give witness to their life, notice what would help. Don’t ask, just give witness, notice, and love them.
Life is so rich,
P.S. This week on the Prof G Pod, I spoke with Mel Robbins, an award-winning podcast host, New York Times bestselling author, and renowned expert on mindset. We talked about her “Let Them Theory,” a simple yet powerful concept that can improve your life and strengthen your relationships. Listen here.
P.P.S. Is AI-driven personalization progress, or an invasion of privacy? Section’s newest event digs into this with former Walmart personalization tech VP Jan Pederson. RSVP for free.
The problem was water pressure. The system was not built for such a large disaster.
I knew Bytedance would not sell TikTok, so now you have a situation where the US government will likely not ban it or not enforce the ban. If TikTok is banned in the US, the 170 million Americans who have it on their phones will not receive updates making their phones easily hackable. Such a bad idea in a time of endless scams.
‘…maybe, or perhaps you’re tempting fate when you build hundreds of thousands of tinder boxes in a desert where high and low pressure systems collide to create tidal waves of hot air (i.e., the Santa Ana winds). ….
This was the most sensible comment in your article… but will Californian’s take heed and leave for a safer state, like for instance New Hampshire? … ranked as the safest state in the U.S. Let’s wait and see!
How petulant to refer to Elon as a “lady”. Green is not your color, Scott
Scott has TDS…it’s terminal. He’s become a crybaby liberal.
The worst thing is that you got that both “sides” are composed of idiots, but were respectful to one side anyway.
That said, I hope the fires actually are stopped, not just contained.
Fires still ablaze make L.A. a major contributor to global climate change, possibly our nation’s largest. Putting these wildfires out might be the first step in preventing next year’s California wildfires.
How petulant to refer to Elon as a “lady”. Green is not your color, Scott
Scott has TDS…it’s terminal. He’s become a crybaby liberal. As his president would say, “SAD”. #unsubscribe
Thank you so much for your thoughtful writing. Was particularly disturbed by your commentary on the concentration of media in fewer hands and the lack of transparency by GoFundMe. I had no idea. Keep writing.
The most shocking thing i learnt from this article is that Disney World is almost twice the size of Manhattan.
*Worst* post since I subscribed. Very whingeing, and radical left.
As always with your crybaby radicals: it’s the fault of the Republicans.
Can I reassure you?: We have the same whimpered in France
Thank you Scott- I read your column and feel hopeful- from your 62 yo married Pediatrician and Mother of 3 young adults, hoping for a better world.
Hi Scott, Thank you for doing these blogs. blessings, Paul
A lot of these 900 people who ought to be paroled or pardoned. -incarcerated volunteer firefighters working on the front lines for $10 a day
In 1906, when the earthquake and fire destroyed San Francisco, estimates are that 3,000 people were killed and 200,000 made homeless. The City had 400,000 people and a mayor who went to jail for corruption. Los Angeles will recover.
“A Crisis Is a Terrible Thing to Waste” indeed, and the opportunity at hand is to rebuild a large swath of LA to endure the future that climate change will bring in the coming decades. Fire resilience goes without saying, but minimized carbon footprint homes (rip up all of the natural gas lines in the affected areas, microgrids to ensure electrical safety and supply do not have single points of failure, fundamental improvements to energy efficiency, etc etc). Also, building new properties as multi-use (residential + commercial) at higher densities will help the housing shortage crisis. As a CA resident, hopefully we get this right.
Scott: Did you see the results of the Presidential election? People don’t want, among other things, the malicious name-calling. Your use of the term, “shit-poster-in-chief, Donald Trump,” is class-less, immature, and, as a fellow UCLA gradute, a digrace to the UCLA community. Grow up!
I think many people do want malicious name calling. Look who is going to be President. It is not “Governor Newscum,” or “birdbrain Nikki Haley.”
Results of the last election strongly suggest that many people *do* want malicious name-calling. I’m not among them, so I tend to agree with your reaction to Scott’s language – but it probably increases his readership. In the specific case of “shit-poster-in-chief”, though, it’s hard not to see that as simply literal truth. Certainly, one of his closest associates, Elon, is infamous for posting pile-of-shit emojis worthy of a 5-year-old child.
Trump’s comments regarding, Canada, Greenland and the Panama Canal are a massive embarrassment for America. I agree with Scott calling him shit-poster-in-chief, because Trump’s going to seriously damage America’s international credibility. In East Asia the US has little credibility. South Korea’s new government will be the next ally to bail, taking the approach it wants an equal relationship with both the US and China.
Always illuminating, thank you and bravo. Just one point: Contrary to what some may think, a very large number of fire victims were not wealthy and living in multimillion dollar homes in the Palisades. They lived in apartment bldgs., mobile homes, and small homes, both in the Palisades (yes, really) and Eaton fire zones. The victims are of every socioeconomic class. It’s not entirely helpful, although admittedly more clickbait-enticing, to give disproportionate attention to the multimillion dollar homes lost in the Palisades fire, and to talk about a, “transfer of wealth”. An excellent point, that one, but not entirely accurate. This disaster hit many poor and middle class people, but all of the victims need compassion and help.
Absolutely loved this Post. Never stop being transparent and putting the facts out there. Such a great source of info / intellectual thought leadership.
I too have donated to several Go Fund Me and it is impossible to avoid the “tip”. I tried. If you could provide some pressure on them to actually make it optional that would be great. I appreciate that the infrastructure has a cost and I am willing to pay it, but don’t want to feel gouged.
As a Southern California resident (not impacted). Thank you for cutting through the partisan BS.
“Thats Good!” Keep up the good work. I Always appreciate your incite and honesty. Be well.
Mixed feelings on this. Fires happen. Individuals can’t do much about it. Or can they? I would never live in California, just don’t like their values. My life is filled with love but only with carefully selected friends. Even friendship is a form of marriage, and anthropologists have defined the relatively small number in a reasonable circle. A person with 1000 friends has no friends. The majority of Californians like the majority of young people 20-40 have a weak sense of responsibility for their own lives and families and thanks to a second family I have seen the differences from 55 year olds to 25 year olds. VN taught me to request tables against a wall with clear fields of fire for all exits. I live in a suburb west of Chicago in part because the Great Lakes have 1/3 plus of the world’s clear water and nuclear fallout goes the other direction. Extreme, yes, but I have a strong sense of personal responsibility. It’s the same for my country: I shot people I didn’t hate to defend people I don’t love.
Average anti-American suburban sociopath.
Not sure how combat service in Vietnam makes on anti-American. I’ll add that I was a volunteer. My country is important to me. I sometimes disagree with US policies but we are the indispensable country and worth defending.
It’s a poorly run state and this is a by-product. That said, attention should now turn to other critical fire areas — such as the Oakland Hills.
Please fill in a few blanks: 1. The market value of a house in Pacific Palisades is multiples of it’s reconstruction cost, so a large 5,000 sq ft house at even $350/sq ft is $1.75mil, not the previous $5mm market price. 2. The empty reservoir has been ‘under repairs’ for a year. What gives? 3. The voters bonded construction of 4 new reservoirs 10 years ago. None are even near completion. Who is accountable for that performance? 3. Who is in charge of doing underbrush clearing that was budgeted, but not done? 4. Homes with external fire suppression systems (roof sprinklers and pool pumps, etc) fared much better. CA requires solar panels, why not fire suppression systems?
There are solutions, the government is too preoccupied with narrative, rather than solving problems.
The blank you need to fill in is your stubborn refusal to acknowledge the scientific consensus on anthropomorphic climate change because you’re completely captured by right wing ideology.
Hope this helps.
You are putting words in my mouth. I did not mention climate change at all. The LA area has been a desert subject to Santa Anna winds and wildfires forever. The homebuilding has made those fires deadly and expensive. It’s time LA face the reality of nature and mitigate the risks regardless of and discussion of climate change. So, aside from adding your climate change opinion to my comments, is there anything I said not true?
Well said. But black men can’t get jobs,I would love to more incarcerated of all stripes working to clean up and rebuild. That will help solve the illegal immigrants problem.
John Vaillant’s book Fire Weather is the best book I read in 2024 – he’s a fabulous presenter and not a blame guy. I heard him at the 2024 Santa Fe Literary Festival. I highly recommend that you and he talk on a podcast – I think it would be a great conversation.
I’d be more inclined to believe in climate change if the purveyors of that ideology were more interested in curtailing the world’s leading polluters and promoting useful alternatives, like Nuclear, rather than condemning us all to the dark ages using wind and solar. But hey, too many people on this planet anyway, right? Paul Erlich and his ilk disgust me, and until the climate change propagandists get serious about alternatives, I will never consider climate change anything more than propaganda.
Average right-wing propaganda casualty sucking big oil’s cock. What a fucking loser.
Witty retort… you must have forgotten to vote in the last election. Calling someone a loser, or insulting them, shows nothing but a general lack of intelligence.
Ah yes, thank you for so eloquently refuting my positions. I’m convinced now. We should immediately stop burning fossil fuels, that will stop all the bad things from happening!
Any convo about climate and the impact of fossil fuels that does not pivot to nuclear is a bogus, lazy discussion. Nuclear is the answer to so many questions.
Nuclear and seawater desalination — built side by side and operated in tandem — are a solution to the California dilemma of power, water, and climate.
FFS, it’s the most obvious solution and the technology is proven.
The 100% solution to any problem is a) not possible and b) too expensive. I was a firefighter for Cal Fire in the 70’s for 4 seasons. The typical response to a house fire is 2-3 engines minimum. This would mean 25,000 fire engines for the 2 main fires in LA. I don’t think California has that many engines. Physics wins these battles anyway. When the winds are > 50mph, aircraft can’t fly.
Fire engines can’t drive at 75mph to “beat the flames to the next neighborhood”. Kudos to all the firefighters, who all do thier best, in very dangerous conditions for the benefit of all, with no bias towards politics or the value of the home. It’s a complex world. Lower your expectations. Nothing is perfect.
I agree more with you than you do with yourself, but you are addressing “active” measures when the most manageable opportunity is passive measures.
Examples of passive measures:
1. Cutting wide interruptions in growth where a fire can be stopped. Pre-positioning fire fighting supplies in this swaths.
2. Prescription burns to remove the fuel from the fire.
3. A fire water system that anticipates a high demand.
4. Installing fire management stations inside communities with dedicated water, pumps, and hoses that can be immediately accessed without waiting for fire trucks to arrive.
5. Removing fuel via building code limitations pertinent to landscaping.
6. Fire suppression systems on individual homes.
7. Scheduling fire water reservoir repairs during the fire off season.
8. Timely completion of reservoir construction and enhanced capacity and piping for fire fighting. You can pump water up for drinking and down for fire fighting there by not commingling demands and running out of pressure.
9. Ensuring adequate funding and staffing to meet the actual risk.
The plan can be so much better.
I like all of your overview and you’re reasoning, but to start a political ideology blame game is stupid and not helpful. The proletariat spoke, the election results represent a majority, so let’s try and avoid finger pointing blaming and start with pulling people together. Your current diatribe is full of good information but contains bad vibes which hurt the cause… so stop finding fault and find some solutions. The blame game can wait. There is or was a certain level of incompetence or a general lack of readiness, but to assign it to politics is not solving anything at this time.
First-Lady-elect Elon Musk 🙂
Could not agree more, thank you.